A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend-Cycle Decompositions of Output

A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend-Cycle Decompositions of Output CAMA Working Paper 31/2015 August 2015

We compare a number of widely used trend-cycle decompositions of output in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. This is motivated by the often markedly different results from these decompositions—different decompositions have broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks in explaining variations in output. Using US quarterly real GDP, we find that the over...

Trend-Cycle Decompositions

investigating the feasibility of a proposed model for geometric design of deployable arch structures

deployable scissor type structures are composed of the so-called scissor-like elements (sles), which are connected to each other at an intermediate point through a pivotal connection and allow them to be folded into a compact bundle for storage or transport. several sles are connected to each other in order to form units with regular polygonal plan views. the sides and radii of the polygons are...

Why Are Trend Cycle Decompositions of Alternative Models So Different?

When a certain procedure is applied to extract two component processes from a single observed process, it is necessary to impose a set of restrictions that defines two components. One popular restriction is the assumption that the shocks to the trend and cycle are orthogonal. Another is the assumption that the trend is a pure random walk process. The unobserved components (UC) model (Harvey, 19...

Some Reflections on Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components

This paper discusses a few interpretative issues arising from trend-cycle decompositions with correlated components. We determine the conditions under which correlated components may originate from: underestimation of the cyclical component; a cycle in growth rates, rather than in the levels; the hysteresis phenomenon; permanenttransitory decompositions, where the permanent component has richer...